[Nettime-bold] briefing 07.05.2001

[ebalkan@soros.org.mk]

"EURO-BALKAN" INSTITUTE ON MACEDONIAN CRISIS

07-05-2001

CONTENTS:

Daily briefing from Macedonian press about Macedonian crisis

Daily briefing from international press about Macedonian crisis

c) SUPPLEMENT: �Macedonia might be entering the Balkan Vicious Circle� � TIME�s reporter Dejan Atanasijevic on a cell phone from Belgrade

a) DAILY BRIEFING FROM MACEDONIAN PRESS ABOUT MACEDONIAN CRISIS

INTENSIFYING OF THE CRISIS IN THE COUNTRY
The Albanian terrorist groups in the region of Shar Planina face Macedonia with a situation before the declaration of war state and total mobilization after the war conflicts in the Kumanovo region and after the announcement of new attacks. Unofficially, we are informed that at least 200 Albanian terrorists yesterday regrouped in the region of the villages of Shar Planina � Veshala, Bozovce, Brodec and Vejce, and are preparing, to at any moment, open fire over the Macedonian security forces. The Prime Minister, Ljubcho Georgievski, the evening before, before the start of the session of the state officials, stated that �the declaration of war state in the country is going to be most seriously discussed�, because Macedonia is faced with an open aggression from paramilitary formations from Kosovo. The decision for declaration of war state should be brought after consultations with the political parties. The Government Spokesman, Antonio Miloshoski, stated yesterday that it is expected the Government to declare war state tomorrow, this will enable the Macedonian security forces on terrain to be more efficient in their confrontation with the terrorists. The Chief of State Cabinet, yesterday announced that the President, Boris Trajkovski, would begin consultations with the parties and other relevant factors. There is a partial mobilization being conducted in the country of the reserve police and army body. The soon declaration of total mobilization is quite probable. Georgievski stated that the aggression towards Macedonia is conducted by paramilitary formations from Kosovo whose aim is to occupy the North part of Macedonian. Georgievski directly accused the Kosovo Protection Corpse as the center in which Albanian terrorists are accepted and trained, and then sent to Macedonia. He evaluated that the forces of K- for, despite all endeavors, are not able to thoroughly secure the border with Macedonia. Georgievski announced that collaboration with the armed forces of the Yugoslavian Army is going to be established soon. (�DNEVNIK�)

ARBEN XHAFERI, PRESIDENT OF THE PDP (PARTY FOR DEMOCRATIC PROSPERITY): ONLY CHANGES IN THE CONSTITUTION CAN STOP THE UPRISING!
We have to immediately introduce changes to the Constitution because that is the only possible way to stop the uprising in certain parts of Macedonia, stated Arben Xhaferi in an interview for the foreign media. He said: �We cannot wait any longer, not 6 months, not even 6 hours�. The leader of the DPA threatened that his party will leave the Government coalition if there is escalation in the war conflicts in the country. According to him, the remaining of DPA in the Government depends on the fact if there are going to be more casualties in the military action. Xhaferi also stated that the clashes have taken on a dimension of religious war and that the Albanians, contrary to the Macedonians, are prepared to make even more sacrifices, but this time, opposed to what happened in the Kosovo war, �they will not be casualties of murderers, but will themselves become murderers�. In his opinion, the Yugoslav Army is an absolutely unacceptable army in any case � for either the territory of Kosovo or Macedonia. (�DNEVNIK�)

PHONE CONVERSATION WITH HUSAMEDIN HALILI, THE LIPKOVO MUNICIPALITY MAYOR
In the last 4 days in the Karadak region 10 inhabitants of the villages Slupchane and Vaksince were killed in the shelling. The number of wounded is above 10. The population of the Karadak region remains in their homes and absolutely ignores the appeal made by the Macedonian Government to evacuate their homes. 150 people have fled the villages where military actions are conducted. Most of them are chronically ill people and pregnant women � says Halili, adding that the Macedonian police used unseen force on these people, beating and tormenting them in various ways. The actions are not directed against the NLA, the sole targets of the military-police forces are inhabited premises and Albanian civilians. Because the Macedonian Government is shelling the civilians, the possibilities for ending the conflict are small. Paramilitary groups are seen operating in the villages with only Macedonian population � Rechica, Umnidol, Lubidrag and other villages that fight together with the Government forces against the civilians. (�FLAKA�- Macedonian newspaper in Albanian)

THE PRIME MINISTER ADDRESSED THE MEMBERS OF THE ALBANIAN MINORITY
The Prime Minister, Ljubcho Georgievski, made an appeal to all Albanian citizens of Macedonia to show great loyalty to their country. �Unfortunately, a time when it will be necessary for them to declare whether they support the NLA or the Government, the state and all it stands for, is coming. They must face the reality that they are the ones that will suffer most in a military conflict that is being imposed upon Macedonia�, said the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister stated that Macedonia is continuingly purchasing sophisticated arms for the army to be able to act from a distance and to avoid using human, live force, against the terrorists. (�VEST�)

REACTIONS FROM THE PARTIES ON THE POSSIBILITY OF DECLARING WAR STATE
The political parties have different opinions on the idea of declaring war state in the country. Some of the parties consider that it will enable the security forces to more successfully deal with the terrorists. The opposition requires arguments for this move, but at this moment is not ready to discuss the issue. The Social Democratic Union considers that the Prime Minister, Georgievski, should present arguments for the declaration of war state. He needs to thoroughly argument the mentioned option � stated the Spokesman of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, Vlado Buchkovski. The Liberal-Democratic Party�s opinion is that a war state should not be declared. It is true, says the Spokesman of the LDP, Andrej Zhernovski that the situation has extremely escalated and that part of the territory is no longer under our control, but the security forces can deal with the terrorists. The Party for Democratic Prosperity doesn�t have an official opinion on this matter. �My personal opinion is that the declaration of war state leads to the disintegration of the country�, says Muhamed Halili of the PDP. (�DNEVNIK�)

13 CIVILIANS EVACUATED FROM SLUPCHANE AND FROM VAKSINCE
Two teams of the International Red Cross Committee, yesterday, immediately after the agreement with the security forces for ceasefire, managed to enter the Kumanovo villages Slupchane and Vaksince, in which there is continuing fighting with the terrorists in the last days. They managed to contact the civilians captured in the basements of their homes and offered to help their evacuation to Kumanovo. Only 13 civilians accepted the offered help, 2 of them being children and 2, pregnant women. (�MAKEDONIJA DENES�)

b) DAILY BRIEFING FROM INTERNATIONAL PRESS ABOUT MACEDONIAN CRISIS

MACEDONIA CLOSE TO DECLARING WAR AGAINST REBELS
The Macedonian government is to consider declaring a state of war against Albanian rebels, whose sudden return has seen the country dragged back into inter-ethnic violence that could threaten the stability of the Balkans. Fighting continued yesterday as Javier Solana, the EU's security affairs chief flew to Skopje to try to calm the atmosphere and head-off the prospect of a potentially disastrous escalation of violence. The EU says it backs the territorial integrity of Macedonia and its right to use proportionate force against guerrillas from Kosovo. However, it believes that a declaration of war could prove disastrous in terms of allaying fears of the Albanian minority in Macedonia, which is campaigning for greater rights.
"A declaration of war is not a step the EU would like to see at this time," said Hans Dahlgren, of Sweden's Foreign Ministry, when European ministers met at Nyk�ping over the weekend. (Excerpts from Independent) A declaration of war would give the Macedonian army a free hand in its offensive against the rebels. Recent rebel ambushes indicate that the rebels have lost patience with the peace talks and want to derail them. (BBC) Solana questioned whether a declaration of a state of war would actually come to be. "I think it's more of a statement than a reality," he said, arguing that it would be "very difficult" to get the two-thirds vote in parliament required for such a declaration. (Excerpts from AFP) Robert Frowick, special representative for the OSCE told CNN that every effort should be made to resolve the conflict through diplomacy. So far, world leaders, including U.S. President George W. Bush, have backed Macedonia in its refusal to negotiate with the rebels, who the government views as terrorists trying to seize territory and carve out an ethnic Albanian state. (Excerpts from Cable News Network) If the past four days are any guide, their talks are likely to be held against a background of more tank and artillery fire, as government forces press their offensive to drive the rebels out of two northeastern villages. "Macedonia is a sovereign state and we will decide ourselves if and when we will declare a state of war," government spokesman Antonio Milosovski said on Sunday. "But we will bear in mind suggestions made by Western countries."(Excerpts from New Zealand Herald)

SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNMENT AND PLEAGES FOR RESTRAINT
Richard Boucher, a State Department spokesman, said: "We have continued to urge the government of Macedonia to do everything possible to avoid civilian casualties as they take the necessary steps to uphold the rule of law." Lord Robertson said: "There must be great concern that this will descend into a spiral of violence and potentially into civil war. The international community must do everything to avoidthat happening." (Excerpts from Independent Digital)�We strongly condemn the terrorist attacks. The purpose of these attacks is to provoke the government into a full-scale war. We therefore urge the government to exercise maximum restraint and to do everything to avoid civilian casualties. Javier Solana will go to Skopje immediately after this meeting. I will myself go to FYROM, Albania and Bosnia- Herzegovina on the 16th and 17th of May,� stated Foreign Minister Anna Lindh at the press briefings in Nykeoping, Sunday May 6, at the informal meeting of ministers for foreign affairs. (Excerpts from AFP) "The Macedonians are trying to use the same tactics as in Tetovo," said a senior Western diplomat in Skopje. "They are amassing superiority and then going in fairly heavily. "This should not be too difficult, considering that some of the rebels appear to have already left the area. There are less fighters there than several days before". (Excerpts from Reuters)

MACEDONIAN REBELS BOMBARDED AS STATE OF WAR LOOMS
Macedonian troops pounded ethnic Albanian rebel bastions with heavy artillery on Sunday as EU and NATO leaders headed here to try to convince the government not to declare a state of war. A Defense Ministry spokesman, Gjordji Trendafilov, said, "The appeal to civilians to evacuate the area Sunday yielded no results," reiterating government claims that more than 3,500 Albanian civilians were believed held as human shields by the rebels. (Excerpts from Herald Tribune) "Paramilitary forces were seen in Kumanova Saturday, whereas Albanian activists report that some of them had arrived from Serbia. It is reasonable to fear a bigger escalation of the situation," Demush Bajrami, deputy of the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) of the region, told KosovaLive. Bajrami said that the information that comes to him from the field prove that the situation is escalating from hour to hour. (Excerpts from KosovaLive)"We'll never let Tetovo happen again," said Com. Sokhu, speaking at his headquarters near Slupcane. The government claims that the rebels are using the families remaining in the villages as human shields, but Mr. Osmani said it was the fear of the Macedonian police that was keeping them from leaving the house. "Where can we go? If we go the Macedonians will be waiting for us. They will separate the men from the children," he said. "Here the women are afraid and the children are crying. "Out on the street not a single house was left untouched by the shelling. Two dead horses and a cow lay by the side of the road. The fantails of mortar shells lay dotted along the road. One shell had blasted out the side of a house. A rebel staff car, a Russian jeep with the letters UCK sprayed on its sides, shot by. The guerrillas claim to have 2,000 men in 12 villages around Kumanovo. Rebel checkpoints and bunkers can be seen at the entry to each village. They wear either black or khaki uniforms, all of them with a red badge bearing the group's initials. (Excerpts from The Guardian)

BALKANS EXPERT SAYS WESTERN AID CAN HELP STOP MACEDONIAN WAR
Western powers must speed up the delivery of economic aid to Macedonia to help prevent its conflict from escalating into a regional war, Balkan Stability Pact coordinator Bodo Hombach told Reuters. Swift aid from Western governments and international organizations could ensure ethnic Albanian rebels remained isolated from the political mainstream in Macedonia, where about one third of the population is ethnic Albanian. "There are serious risks of this escalating but we can still stop that happening," Hombach said outside a NATO meeting in Bucharest, as Macedonian artillery and a helicopter gunship bombarded villages in Macedonia's northeastern mountains. He said attention to ethnic Albanian grievances could stop the insurgency by the guerrilla NLA from unleashing a bloodbath, as NATO Secretary- General George Robertson warned on Thursday it could. Hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of international aid was promised to rebuild Balkan economies after the 1999 Kosovo conflict, but bureaucratic obstacles and continuing turmoil in the region have delayed the implementation of many projects. "I can't stop terrorists from crossing the border from Kosovo and firing but we can stop them from hijacking civil society," said Hombach. "The mainstream ethnic Albanian political leadership still has authority in Macedonia," he said. "They want their economic and social security and it's much cheaper for us to prevent conflict than to wage it." The Macedonian government has ruled out talking to the NLA, but Hombach said his discussions with Arben Xhaferi, the leader of the country's main ethnic Albanian party, during a month of violence earlier this year had shown a solution was possible. "He asked us to give him something to take up to the gunmen in the hills," Hombach said. "What he told us was simple: �I need some substance to get a deal'." (Excerpts from Reuters)

ETHNIC ALBANIANS STRAGGLE INTO KOSOVO FROM MACEDONIAN FIGHTING
On foot or piled into cars, hundreds of ethnic Albanians stream across the border into Kosovo Sunday, fleeing villages in northern Macedonia where the army was using heavy artillery to smash an ethnic Albanian guerrilla group. Most of the refugees come from villages near the border with Serbia, in the hills above Kumanovo, which have not yet been hit by the artillery bombardment that started Thursday after the guerrillas killed two soldiers while talking control of the area. But others come from Lopate and Vaksince, which have seen heavy bombardments since falling into the hands of the ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA)."The refugees are tired and traumatized," said an international UNHCR worker. The fear was evident in the children's faces. Dozens of taxi drivers were turning up to offer their services for free. Two years ago, a tidal wave of Kosovo Albanians was headed in the opposite direction, escaping the brutal tactics of ousted Yugoslav hardliner Slobodan Milosevic. (Excerpts from AFP)

OSCE AND THE RED CROSS CONFIRM �HUMAN SHIELS�
OSCE said the guerrillas, many of whom are former members of the Kosovo Liberation Army, were preventing civilians from leaving. Macedonian state television accuses the fighters of using the people as "human shields." The practice is in strict contravention of the Geneva Convention. Macedonian television also claimed Saturday that civilians were being forced to pay bribes to the NLA to be allowed to leave. However, an Albanian who left Slupcane on Friday, Nexhat Osmani, said Albanians also were fearful of evacuating because they do not trust the Macedonian police. The police around the villages are not the ones we know - they come from outside. People fear they may be arrested as suspects if they leave." (Excerpts from The Washington Times) Red Cross confirmed yesterday that extremist Albanian rebels in villages under heavy shellfire are holding civilians against their will from the Macedonian army. "One reason why people are staying in these villages is a form of intimidation," said Annick Bouvier, a spokesman for the International Committee of the Red Cross information officer, in the Macedonian capital, Skopje. Thomas Jenatsch, an ICRC delegate who visited the villages, said people had been hiding in basements. "They are exhausted, worried and their hygienic situation is very precarious." (Excerpts from Daily Telegraph)


c) SUPPLEMENT: 'Macedonia May Be Entering the Balkan Vicious Cycle' Cell Phone from Belgrade: TIME's Dejan Anastasijevic says renewed violence is drawing in ordinary people, and that could start an ethnic war
TIME.com: Two months ago Macedonia appeared to have averted a crisis when it drove Albanian separatist guerrillas away from the town of Tetovo, and opened talks with the country's ethnic-Albanian minority. But a new round of attacks on security forces, as well as anti- Albanian riots, suggest the country is back on the brink of a civil war. Why has the conflict flared up again?
Dejan Anastasijevic: It was only a matter of time before this happened, really, because the main source of the trouble in Macedonia was never removed � the ethnic-Albanian hard-liners operating from Kosovo. After driving the Albanian fighters away from Tetovo a couple of months ago, the Macedonian government opened a dialogue on constitutional changes with parties representing the ethnic-Albanian community. But the guerrillas of the National Liberation Army used that time to regroup and reorganize, and now they've launched a new offensive. One of the most worrying developments, though, is that we now see vigilantes from the Slavic Macedonian community attacking Albanian civilians. In the town of Bitola on Tuesday, some 40 shops owned by Albanians were destroyed. Even in the capital, Skopje, an Albanian bar owner has been killed by masked gunmen. The government is saying it was in a criminal dispute, but it looks like the actions of vigilantes.
I'm afraid Macedonia may now be entering the vicious circle of violence and retribution that have been a common feature of the Balkan wars of the last decade. Because the violence is no longer confined to clashes between the security forces and insurgents. Ordinary people from both sides are clearly being sucked in, which means that what started as a security problem for Macedonia is turning into an ethnic conflict.

TIME.com: How is the Macedonian government responding to the danger of vigilante actions turning this into a full-blown civil war?

Dejan Anastasijevic: They've come out condemning the violence, and said they're investigating. But there seems to be little political will on the government side to hit the vigilante mobs very hard. They're reluctant to make mass arrests, and isolating the ringleaders takes time. But the crisis is escalating all the time, because every day there are new reports of soldiers and policemen being killed by the rebel fighters, and that may make the situation spiral out of control. The clashes have now spread territorially from their original focus around Tetovo to a number of other towns and cities, and the conflict is spreading socially, too, not simply being confined to guerrillas and security forces, but drawing in ordinary people on both sides.

TIME.com: The West has unequivocally rejected the separatist insurgency, and is concerned to stop Macedonia turning into yet another Balkan tragedy. What can it do to avoid this?

Dejan Anastasijevic: When the conflict first erupted earlier this year, the West tried to intervene diplomatically to solve the problem. It pushed the Macedonian government to open up greater dialogue with the territory's ethnic- Albanian population, and on the other hand put pressure on the sources and supporters of the guerrillas in Kosovo. Obviously this pressure was not enough to send a message to the extremists that violence would not be tolerated.
The key to stopping the insurgency remains for securing the border between Macedonia and Kosovo. It is a rough terrain and it is potentially risky for the NATO peacekeeping troops in KFOR, but keeping the peace is what they�re there for, and there are 40,000 of them. The Macedonian government has also urged that the West do more to stop fundraising efforts for the guerrillas among Albanian communities in Switzerland, Germany and the U.S. Macedonia's President Boris Trajkovski met with President Bush this week and was promised more economic aid, but it will be next year before that aid begins to arrive. And by then, there may be no country left to aid.

 



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