Re: <nettime> It goes beyond the Meat Loaf Problem

[Carsten Agger <agger@modspil.dk>]

On 8/20/19 12:05 AM, André Rebentisch wrote:
> Partisanism makes the world easier but does not get it right.
>
> You have to simply consider this from a political standpoint and just
> view the moves of the players.
>
> a. What does he sacrifice by proposing himself?
> b. What do MPs sacrifice if they support the opposition?
>
> a. nothing at all
> b. everything
>
Not entirely true.

If Corbyn becomes prime minister in an interim government to avoid no
deal, he will, on the one hand, actually get to inhabit 10 Downing
Street; on the other, the mission will be strictly that of overseeing
the interim period while figuring out what to do with Brexit, with his
hands tied on his back with regard to the political reforms that are his
(and Labour's, excluding the Blairites) political project. No matter who
takes on that job will likely end up being hugely unpopular and ruin
their political prospects for decades to come. And Corbyn doesn't *have*
that many decades to come.

Of course, it wouldn't have to turn out that way, but he would indeed be
running that risk. Not to speak of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit
Labour voters by supporting a new referendum.

As for the other options you outlined in a previous mail - there's no
way around the backstop. If the UK leaves the EU, either it stays in the
customs union, OR there is a hard bord in the Irish sea, OR there is a
hard border between Ulster and the Republic of Ireland. The UK Tories
would never accept a border in the Irish sea, and a hard border in
Ireland could reignite the Troubles and kickstart another ten years of
civil war in Ireland.

Of course, someone like Boris Johnson doesn't really give a shit about
Ireland and would gladly take civil war if it means he can cling on to
an imperial possession, but the UK as such has too much capital invested
in the Good Friday agreement to make a hard Irish border a serious option.

Hence, the backstop. The problem is that Boris Johnson and the other
right-wing Brexiteers want to eat their cake and have it too. And that
is, of course, impossible.

Which means that the most likely scenario is that the UK WILL leave with
no deal, and, as a consequence, there WILL be a hard border in Ireland.
Or maybe the UK will lose Ulster, just as it seems on the way to lose
Scotland - two remarkable, if ironic, achievements for Mr. Johnson to
put on his CV.

And it is to avoid this clusterf**k that Corbyn s actually offering to
stick his neck out and take on a premiership that's doomed to fail. I
think he does deserve some credit for that, partisanships aside.


Best
Carsten



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