<nettime> Kosovo TFF Pressinfo # 34

[tff@transnational.org (Transnational Foundation)]

T F F   P r e s s I n f o   #   3 4


KOSOVO - why it is serious and what not to do

"The statements and threats by European Union commissioner HANS VAN
DEN BROEK and foreign secretary ROBIN COOK are imprudent: they focus
on the actors, not on the problems. When BENJAMIN GILMAN, chairman of
the US House International Relations Committee talks about sanctions,
sending "NATO and UN troops" to the region and supports "independent
Kosova," there is even more reason for concern. They speak the
language of power and violence, not of understanding and dialogue. And
it is likely to harm the Kosovo-Albanians.

The TRAGIC TRUTH is that since 1990, neither the United States, the
OSCE nor the EU and its members have developed any policies to help
the Serbs and Albanians avoid the predictable showdown we now witness
in Kosovo.

There is much talk about conflict prevention, early warning,
preventive diplomacy and non-military security. The second tragic
truth is that there has been very little intellectual innovation since
the so-called end of the Cold War. No new organisations have been
created, geared to handle the new conflicts. Governments still seem
unaware that their diplomats must be trained in conflict understanding
and management - as anyone dealing with legal issues must be trained
in law. And global media still focus on violence, not on underlying
conflicts or possible solutions," says Dr. OBERG who, during the last
six years, has been personally engaged with a TFF team of experts in
conflict-mitigation between Serbs and Albanians at government as well
as NGO level.

Regrettably recent events in the Kosovo province of Yugoslavia confirm
the early warnings by many independent voices, including the TFF since
1992 and, latest,  our PressInfo from August 1997:

"The Serbs and Albanians have proved that they themselves are unable
to start and sustain a dialogue process towards conflict-resolution
and reconciliation. International attempts, lacking analysis as well
as strategy, have failed, too. The overall situation has deteriorated
and violence is escalating, slowly but surely. It simply cannot go on
like that in the future, and go well. New thinking should be applied
sooner rather than later."

Following is Dr. Oberg's assessment of why the Kosovo situation is
dangerous:

"The KOSOVO-ALBANIAN LEADERSHIP which supports pragmatic rather than
principled non-violence and wants international involvement is rapidly
being undermined by a "Kosova Liberation Army" whose violence suits
the Belgrade authorities' repression well, and vice versa. The
Albanians proclaimed their independent state "Kosova" in 1990. They
hoped that the Dayton process would include them and that the
international community would not recognise Yugoslavia with Kosovo
inside it. Since both assumptions turned out to be wrong, the
Kosovo-Albanian leadership has not been able to devise a new policy
and strategy for stepwise achievement of their longterm goal.

The SERBIAN LEADERS refuse any international governmental involvement
in what they consider an internal affair of Yugoslavia. But that is no
longer a viable argument. The increasingly violent situation in the
Kosovo region threatens inter-national stability. Yugoslavia is eager
to become an integral part of the international community and seeks
much needed investments and loans; it can hardly have it both ways.

THUS, THE SERBIAN AND ALBANIAN LEADERS SHARE THREE THINGS:
1) a policy with mutually exclusive positions
2) an inability to get an sustained, orderly dialogue going
3) an increasing, perceived need to use VIOLENCE.

Thus, over time the Albanian side has gotten stuck with symbol
policies of their independent state. The Serb side is equally stuck
with nothing to offer but repressive policies within Yugoslavia. In
short, a vicious circle.

In this situation it is COUNTERPRODUCTIVE to issue warnings, threats 
or judgments - as has been done the last few days by Western diplomats
in general and HANS VAN DEN BROEK, ROBIN COOK and BENJAMIN GILMAN in
particular. Since the Yugoslav tragedy began in 1991, the US and the
EU have proven remarkably incapable at analysing the conflicts and the
complexities of the Balkans. Their policies are better characterised
by nationalism and double standards than by "common" policies or
statesmanship.

DO THESE DIPLOMATS SERIOUSLY EXPECT US TO BELIEVE THAT NEW ECONOMIC
SANCTIONS against the 10 million people in Yugoslavia (of which 2
million Kosovo-Albanians) will make ordinary Serbs reconciliate with
the Kosovo-Albanians or that they will make the Yugoslav leadership
including President Milosevic initiate negotiations? Will Milosevic
believe the West is really angry with him when it has made itself
quite dependent upon his co-operation in the - fragile -
implementation of the Dayton Agreement?

How many billions of dollars are the sanction-advocates willing to set
off to compensate the trade partners who will be barred from trading
with Yugoslavia - has, for instance, not Macedonia suffered enough
under the former sanctions? How do sanction advocates think
secession-prone Montenegro will react to being victimised once again?

Statesmen wanting to prevent violence would ADDRESS THE PROBLEM and
ask: how can we help solve it? They would need facts, analyses, and
some basic knowledge about conflicts as well as history and psychology
- in short understanding - before making proposals.

Not so Gilman, Cook and van den Broek. Conscious about past conflict
management blunders, they skip listening, knowledge and analysis, play
it tough, apportion guilt, talk down, point fingers, and offer
lectures on civilised behaviour. They pretend to know the ideal
solution and threaten punishment in a tone you would use only to
people you fundamentally don't respect. By ATTACKING THE ACTORS, they
help solidify their locked positions and harden the attitudes.

And so they continue the history of European and American arrogance in
the Balkans. If violence increases, they may turn the blind eye to the
tragedy. Alternatively, they may exert a - self-appointed - moral
obligation to intervene militarily arguing that this is the only way
to make these people understand noble Western motives as well as
intellectually and morally superior conflict-management...

BUT THIS IS NOT THE ONLY WAY. IT'S THE WORST WAY. In the next
PressInfo we suggest other options. But regrettably, a scenario along
the lines above can no longer be excluded," ends Dr. Oberg.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

You will find the relevant links to Yugoslavia and the Kosovo province
at our website - http://www.transnational.org

TFF
TRANSNATIONAL  FOUNDATION  FOR  PEACE  AND  FUTURE  RESEARCH
Vegagatan 25, S - 224 57 Lund, Sweden
Phone + 46 - 46 - 145909 (9:00-10:00 and 14:00-16:00)
Fax  + 46 - 46 -144512 (24 h)
E-mail: tff@transnational.org
Website: http://www.transnational.org










If you re-print, copy, archive or re-post this item, please retain
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* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* * *

Dr. Jan Oberg
Director, head of the TFF Conflict-Mitigation team to the Balkans and
Georgia

T F F

Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research
Vegagatan 25, S - 224 57 Lund, Sweden
Phone +46-46-145909 (0900-1100)
Fax +46-46-144512
Email
tff@transnational.org
http://www.transnational.org


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* * *






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