[Nettime-bold] C R I S I S W E B N E W S - New Indonesia Briefing

["Tanya Borel" <icgbrussels@crisisweb.org>(by way of richard barbrook)]

          C R I S I S W E B   N E W  S
---------------------------
Monday, 21 May  2001


ASIA -------
INDONESIA'S PRESIDENTIAL CRISIS: ROUND TWO
Impasse  Paralyses Economy and Endangers Democracy

ICG Indonesia Briefing



JAKARTA/BRUSSELS, 21 May 2001: A new briefing paper >from the
International Crisis Group, "Indonesia's Presidential Crisis: The Second
Round*  ", warns that a lengthy impasse over President Wahid's future means
the economy  will slide further, the risk of political violence will
escalate, and  Indonesia's transition to democracy may be seriously
endangered.



Called to account in February by the parliament, President  Abdurrahman
Wahid, or Gus Dur as he is known, has failed to satisfy legislators'
questions about his role in two financial scandals. He now has until 30 May
to  answer a second parliamentary memorandum. If he fails once again to
satisfy the  parliament (DPR), it seems inevitable that it will call a
special session of the  People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) in August to
impeach him.



The lengthy political crisis is compounding Indonesia's  problems. The
rupiah has slipped from Rp 9,300 to the US Dollar at the end of  last year
to Rp 12,000 on 26 April 2001. The budget drawn up five months ago is  now
untenable, and IMF aid has been postponed. Business confidence has declined
further and investment stalled.



Gus Dur has been offered a compromise, which would transfer day  to day
power to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri leaving him as a  figurehead
president. Both Megawati and the leadership of Indonesia's other  major
party, Golkar, favour this option as the best way to avoid violence, but
Gus Dur has so far refused to accept it.



Meanwhile the President has claimed that if he steps down  "civil war will
break out" and "there will be a nation-wide rebellion". His  supporters in
East Java formed a "Ready-to-Die" force and have attacked Golkar  offices,
burning one to the ground in February - events that the President  himself
did not condemn. On 5 May Gus Dur floated the idea of declaring a state  of
emergency - which was flatly rejected by Army Chief of Staff. The military
has shown no sign of being ready to intervene, and military-appointed
representatives have abstained from the most recent parliamentary vote on
the  president's future.



So far major clashes have been avoided, but they may simply  have been
postponed. The growing fears of widespread social disintegration and  the
breakdown of law and order are also accompanied by a worrying trend:
nostalgia for the enforced order of the Soeharto era. Many Indonesians are
yet  to be convinced that democracy brings more than disorder and chaos. A
swift  resolution to the political crisis will not solve all the country's
problems,  but nothing else will be addressed while it continues.

 The complete text of the report may be downloaded in  pdf format from the
ICG website www.crisisweb.org. The  report is also available in printed
form (write to: icgbrussels@crisisweb.org).  
-------------------------------------
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 Tanya Borel de  Bitche
***************************
International Crisis Group
149 Ave.  Louise Bte. 11
1050 Brussels, Belgium
Tel: +32 (0)2 502 9038
Fax: +32  (0)2 502 5038



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