[Nettime-bold] C R I S I S W E B N E W S - New Bosnia Report

["Tanya Borel" <icgbrussels@crisisweb.org>(by way of richard barbrook)]

    =Arial> =  123456   C R I S I S W E  B   N E W S
 ---------------------------
Tuesday, 22 May  2001

BALKANS
---------------
No early exit: NATO's  Continuing Challenge in Bosnia




ICG Balkans Report No.110



Sarajevo/Brussels, 22 May 2001: The  International Crisis Group is urging
NATO allies to resist U.S. pressure to  reduce troop numbers in Bosnia, and
ensure that SFOR is guaranteed the resources  it needs to fulfil its
post-conflict, peace-building mandate.


U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is wrong when he claims  that the
job in Bosnia is "done." The implementation of Dayton is far >from
complete and is reliant on SFOR troops to succeed. A U.S. drawdown in
particular  would undermine confidence in security, and boost support for
extremists at a  time when they are losing both votes and legitimacy. In
its new report No  Early Exit: NATO s Continuing Challenge in Bosnia, ICG
argues that  maintaining troop numbers at current levels is vital to
security not only in  Bosnia, but across the region.


ICG Balkans Program Director Mark Thompson said, "Although the  Dayton
agreement is more than five years old, it has only been in the past 18
months that the international community has shown much muscle in
challenging  hard-liners who had previously stymied the peace process.
Changes of government  in Croatia and Serbia and the election of a
multiethnic coalition in Sarajevo  have reinforced this new resolve. The
prospects for building a sustained peace  in Bosnia are better than ever.
But it s a delicate balance and any significant  cuts to SFOR now would
send precisely the wrong signal to extremists."


Recent events highlight the need for a robust SFOR presence. In  early
April international officials were beaten and taken hostage while
conducting surprise inspections on Hercegovacka Banka, a bank with close
links to Croat separatists. This month there were anti-Muslim riots in
Trebinje and  Banja Luka, while attacks on returning refugees are also
increasing. In many  recent cases of ethnic violence local police either
stood by or took part in the  attacks themselves.


The size of the NATO-led force in Bosnia has already shrunk  >from 60,000
in 1995, to 22,000 today. The U.S. contingent is down to 3,300, from
20,000 in 1995. SFOR must also fulfil its own conditions for force
reductions  agreed last year before further cuts can be contemplated.


Troop reductions by the U.S. would encourage others. Germany,  Russia and
the Czech Republic have already announced cuts on the back of U.S.
drawdowns. Moreover any U.S reductions below credible levels would add
weight to  arguments for a European Rapid Reaction Force independent of
NATO, thus putting  the alliance itself at risk.


In No Early Exit, ICG sets out a series of benchmarks  that must be met
before SFOR can consider withdrawal. They illustrate how far  Bosnia is
from self-sustaining peace. Mark Thompson said, "SFOR should not  consider
withdrawal until Bosnian police and justice officials have a track  record
of operating independently and without ethnic bias, and have arrested
indicted war criminals of their own nationality. Paramilitary forces must
have  been eliminated, and Bosnia s three armies and intelligence services
should have  been brought under unified command, depoliticised and
professionalised to the  point where Bosnia can join NATO s Partnership
for Peace."


Other benchmarks that must be met prior to SFOR withdrawal are:  the
effective operation of the Ministry of Refugees and Displaced persons, a
unified customs and border service, the dismantling of parallel Bosniak and
Muslim institutions in the Federation, including the reunification of
Mostar,  implementation of the Constitutional Court decision on equality
for all peoples  in Bosnia, and a permanent election law adopted by the
parliament. Finally,  Bosnian state institutions must have taken over
primary responsibility for  facilitating economic development and ensuring
the operation of a common  market.


 The complete text of the report may be downloaded in
pdf format >from the  ICG website www.crisisweb.org
The report is also available in printed  form (write
to: icgbrussels@crisisweb.org). 
------------------------------------- CrisisWeb  - http://www.crisisweb.org
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Tanya  Borel de Bitche
 ***************************
 International  Crisis Group
149 Ave. Louise Bte. 11
1050 Brussels, Belgium
Tel: +32  (0)2 502 9038
Fax: +32 (0)2 502  5038 



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